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AI Threat Modeling

Overview

AI threat modeling adapts traditional threat modeling to address unique risks in machine learning systems. It helps identify vulnerabilities before deployment.

AI Threat Modeling Frameworks

STRIDE for AI

Threat AI Context
Spoofing Fake training data, impersonating data sources
Tampering Data poisoning, model manipulation
Repudiation Lack of audit trails for model decisions
Information Disclosure Model inversion, membership inference
Denial of Service Resource exhaustion attacks on inference
Elevation of Privilege Prompt injection, jailbreaking LLMs

MITRE ATLAS Framework

ATLAS (Adversarial Threat Landscape for AI Systems) provides:

  • Tactics - Adversary goals (Reconnaissance, Initial Access, etc.)
  • Techniques - Methods to achieve goals
  • Case Studies - Real-world AI attacks

AI System Components to Analyze

  1. Data Pipeline - Collection, storage, preprocessing
  2. Training Infrastructure - Compute, frameworks, hyperparameters
  3. Model Repository - Model storage, versioning, access
  4. Inference System - APIs, edge deployment, monitoring
  5. Human Interfaces - Labeling tools, admin dashboards

Threat Modeling Process for AI

Step 1: Define Scope

  • What type of ML system? (Classification, NLP, Computer Vision)
  • What is the deployment model? (Cloud API, Edge, Embedded)
  • Who are the users? What data do they provide?

Step 2: Create Architecture Diagram

Include:

  • Data sources and flows
  • Model training pipeline
  • Inference endpoints
  • Trust boundaries

Step 3: Identify Threats

For each component, consider:

  • What could go wrong?
  • Who might attack this?
  • What's the impact?

Step 4: Prioritize Risks

Use risk matrix:

Likelihood/Impact Low Medium High
High Medium High Critical
Medium Low Medium High
Low Low Low Medium

Step 5: Define Mitigations

Map threats to controls from AI Security Fundamentals.

Common AI Threat Scenarios

High-Risk Scenarios

  • Public-facing ML APIs - High exposure to extraction and adversarial attacks
  • Models trained on user data - Privacy and poisoning risks
  • LLMs with tool access - Prompt injection leading to unauthorized actions
  • Autonomous systems - Safety-critical decision manipulation

Tools for AI Threat Modeling

  • Microsoft Threat Modeling Tool - With AI extensions
  • OWASP Threat Dragon - Open-source alternative
  • Counterfit - Microsoft's AI security testing tool
  • ART (Adversarial Robustness Toolbox) - IBM's testing framework